Reality bites part II

This entry is taken from outsyedthebox, a blogger and owns a jewellery shop.  He wrote this, which appears to be the fact of life and where reality bites.

First of all the same crooks are back in business. And they are plotting to rip off even more billions of taxpayers money. You can read about Three Men In A Pub  at Another Brick In The Wall.  

Too many people (I am talking about you too dearest reader) in this country have a tidak apa  attitude.  We dont seem to focus on what is important (the issues which can make us poorer if we neglect them). Not getting rid of the crooks is one of them. You people can get cheated again and again. (Go ahead - get angry if you want. I am telling the truth.)

Instead you waste time focussing on trivial things (which does make you poorer) which are quite useless.  The discussion on "religious issues" is one such example.

Please continue reading this Blog. I really hope maybe I can contribute towards pointing out the meat from the gravy. Or if you are vegetarian, the wheat from the chaff. Or in Malay 'yang mana intan dan yang mana kaca'. The isi from the habuk. The good guys from the crooks. 

While we are in the midst of the UMNO elections dont forget that the Budget is coming up soon. There are not so good signs on the horizon. 

The Chief Minister of Malacca has announced a plan to build a 42 km long bridge with another 71 km long highway and approach roads connecting Melaka to Sumatera. 

In 2013 the technology to build the bridge exists. The money part is doubtful. But the biggest risk shall be the project management part.  Most of the 71 km long highway and approach roads plus half the bridge will be in Sumatera. Things can get pretty complicated over there in Indonesia.  Good luck.  

However if the bridge is built, many may consider a career in the 'Jabatan Imigresen' - 'Satu kepala RM50, dua kepala RM100, tiga kepala RM150...'  : )

Back to our discussion today, just last week I was told that Maxis has laid off over 250 staff. Maxis is going to lay off another 100 plus staff in the coming weeks (not months). They are waiting for their lay off letters. Times are getting bad - but not for everyone. The Malays and the bumiputras are going to be affected more than the non bumis. I am not just saying this. These are facts.

In the same light here are some really disturbing headlines from The Star of 14/10/2013. 

Now this is a really, really important issue ok. And please bear this in mind - bumiputras.These things affect the bumis more than the non bumis. In Malaysia everything is about race, race and race. Here is The Star :

1. 35% drop in job vacancies

• fresh graduates feeling heat from softening job market
• vacancies in June dropped by 35.7% to 107,796 compared last year
• 180,000 grads enter labour market yearly after university convocations 
• extended retirement age, higher costs, lower revenue, uncertain economy
• extension of retirement from 55 to 60 - 915,000 retained in workforce for 5 years  
• higher retirement age raised in July means a reduction in new intake
• bracing for full impact of minimum wage policy in January
• offering VSS for employees to leave (like Maxis has done)
• MNCs were rationalising their "permanent" headcounts in anticipation 
• those that are hiring, are doing so on contract basis
• electrical and electronics companies undertaken cost cutting to sustain ops
• softening job market due to RM4.99bil drop in export from January to June
• requiring “more multi-skilling and multi-tasking” (can speak English)
• job market had not picked up since January
• online job portal, print media & headhunter networks (say) fewer jobs 

2.  More bosses opting for contract employees

• Employers opting for contract staff & outsourcing work 
• employment models changed
• hiring contract staff saves money
• more freelancers - need not hire permanent staff
• US-based MNCs have frozen recruitment or hiring contract staff
• stopped hiring indefinitely due to the uncertain economy
• minimum wage - to expand automation to offset increase labour costs

My comments : Didnt I say so? The Minimum Wage Policy will cause higher operating costs and hence more unemployment. 

Now you can see for yourself - it is happening. Factories are switching to more automation to overcome the Minimum Wage laws. More young bumiputras will get unemployed.  

I also did say that the Minimum Wage law will also cause inflation. That is also happening. For example, because of the Minimum Wage, all our 'tukang emas' suppliers have raised their prices.  One of our 'tukang' raised the workmanship charges (upah) for a simple ring from RM100+ to over RM250 - more than 100%.  We raised all our prices since January this year.  Otherwise how to survive. So you all pay higher prices. That is called inflation.

This is the double whammy which I mentioned earlier. So the effects of a Minimum Wage are being neutralised by higher price inflation for products and services. Its back to square one. Gaji mungkin lebih, tapi barang pun naik.

Now there is a triple whammy - the retirement age has been raised from 55 to 60 years old. This means fresh graduates and young people entering the labour market will have less vacant positions available. Because the old people can now work until they are 60 years old. 

(This means I have seven more years until retirement - but my wife and I run our own businesses - no retirement age). And now with the softening economy and uncertain world scenario - the job market is freezing up. This affects the bumiputras more than the non bumis.Do read on.

So the Minimum Wage and the higher Retirement Age is creating more unemployment - especially for the young bumiputras. Congratulations are due to our un-thinking Gomen and their un-thinking advisors. 

3.  Postgraduates are also worried about unemployment

• tough to find work even with postgraduate qualifications
• Nor Ezzatul 24, Haja Maidin, 25, worried about securing a job
• very few jobs available currently, Nor Ezzatul said.
• her friends accepted jobs in unrelated fields for as low as RM1,000 
• course mates returned to villages doing menial work
• Haja attended four interviews but not successful 
• extended retirement age disrupted 'work ecology’ - grads nowhere to go
• duo graduated with master’s degrees from Universiti Sains Malaysia 

In the story above here, Ezzatul and Haja are obviously Malays. Their friends who have gone back to the kampong to do menial jobs are also most likely Malays.

We need to know how many non bumi or non Malay fresh graduates remain unemployed? Their numbers are far less than the number of Malays and bumis. Why? Even when they graduate from the same universities (USM, UKM, UM etc) the non bumis get jobs whereas the bumis do not. Or it takes them longer. Why?

Here is another story. This morning two Indonesian women walked into our shop. They have jobs. One works as a cook in a hotel. A few nights a week she also runs a pasar malam business. Then she asked if she could work in our shop - part time. That would be three jobs for her. They are not choosy. They really work hard. If she was a little younger, we would have hired her. You know why? Because they come to work. They do not ponteng, minta cuti, rasa penat etc - the excuses we hear all the time.

With Minimum Wage our salesgirls (Qualifications : PMR, SPM, tahu warna dan bunyi etc) now take home RM1100 - 1200. This is a good wage for young school leavers.  Two girls walked in the other day. They would work only if both were hired. So we hired both of them. They disappeared after the first paycheck. 

Another 21 year old girl from Perlis walked in. She was earning RM400 a month in Perlis. We offered her RM1200. "Saya nak mula kerja lepas Hari Raya" she said. Never turned up. Maybe she got a higher paying job. Stockbroking? GLC CEO? Not likely. They dont like to work ! !

(Do read on to find out why I think Budget 2014 can topple Najib. Thats at the end). 

Today this letter appeared in The Star :

Got a degree but not a job

• parents with money prefer international schools for obvious reasons
• elite send their children at a young age to England 
• main attraction of inter­national schools is the Cambridge IGCSE syllabus
• syllabus make their children holistic compared to nationa­l school syllabus
• better grasp of English puts them above their unfortunate friends 
• national school poor in English & genera­l knowledge (un)able to compete 
• laugh at India for producing graduates who end up kacang putih” sellers
• Are we now on a similar road?
• graduates today handicapped in many areas, especially English
• That is why many graduates are unemployed
• HASSSAN TALIB - Gombak

Again these stories refer mostly to Malay and bumi students and graduates. 

Now lets cross the racial divide. Many Chinese and Indian kids speak better English. Almost all the big private universities which are populated mostly by non bumi students (Segi, UCSI, Taylors, Inti, Monash, Nottingham, LimKokWing, etc) teach almost exclusively in English. 

Their students graduate with good English skills. And they get jobs. My son and all his graduating college mates who looked for jobs  (Taylors - June 2013) have found jobs. Some even turned down good job offers for even better offers.  There is a demand for them. Why? 

• Because they speak English
• they are well trained in their field (in the English medium)
• they have good general knowledge
• they have good work attitudes and 
• they come to work with no fuss. 

(My son works late nights and weekends. He cut short our single Hari Raya Haji holiday yesterday because he had work to do - he is working on a building design. His Chinese employer cukup sayang dia and all the others in their office - all the kids work hard. They get paid decent salaries for fresh grads. But the work experience and the professional opportunities they are getting at such a young age is priceless. Ini yang ramai orang muda tak faham.)

Ok so how will Budget 2014 topple Najib? This rising unemployment, especially among bumiputras, makes up some of the dark clouds on the horizon. The international economy is uncertain, except China and the Far East. The domestic economy is not revving up either.

Growth is slowing. The commodities sector is just coasting. Oil and gas has nothing spectacular to shout about. Do you know that Petronas' total revenue for 2012 increased by a full ONE PERCENT (1%) ?? Thats what it says in their Annual Report. 

And as the news report above says "softening job market due to RM4.99bil drop in export from January to June."   If the trend continues, our exports will fall RM10.0 Billion for this year 2013 !! That is a lot of exports.

So I hope Najib's Budget 2014 will not 

i.  create any new taxes that will burden any sector of the economy
ii. introduce new regulations or restrictions that will increase the cost of doing business

The Malaysian economy is getting precarious. We are already paying the price of the Minimum Wage and the Higher Retirement age.  

Any more wrong steps by Najib at this critical juncture can send the economy into a major slowdown, a major correction or even a tailspin recession. No more silly mistakes or poorly thought policy ideas please. I hope the Prime Minister's advisors - including those who are too frequently travelling overseas - will forward this to the PM.

What we need now is for the economy to be freed up even more. Remove more restrictions. Make it easier and easier to do business.  

And please get the GLCs out of businesses that compete with the private sector. Pasal apa pula Khazanah nak jual papaya dan udang? Pasal apa pula Khazanah nak buat bangunan saja. 

Leave all that to the Malaysian private sector - the real private sector where people have to really work and earn a living. Not play play with taxpayers money. Or where Ministers and ex Ministers plot with crooks how to steal Gomen funds (aka taxpayers funds). All that has to stop lah.

The property sector has to be managed carefully. It seems to be the only growth industry in the country now. Increasing taxes (RPGT) or introducing restrictions can kill off the property sector and send the economy into a slowdown and create even more unemployment. 

The Treasury guys have to listen carefully about how to handle the property sector. 

Do not burden the property developers directly now - they create hundreds of thousands of jobs, buy millions of tons of cement and steel. If there are new restrictions, new taxes, higher RPGTs etc - it will impact them directly and negatively. Leave the property developers alone.

The overheating of the property sector is often caused by the Bankers - not the property developers. If you have to monitor anyone, let it be the Bankers. The Bankers make crazy property loans. It is better to increase the Bankers "prudency" in making property loans. 

Buying two houses is common for many people. But those who buy third and fourth houses should not be given too easy credit. Tighten the loan conditions for third and fourth homes. This will affect the Banks more plus cut down the housing speculators. Yes it will correct the house prices to an extent but it will NOT kill the property sector. Genuine home buyers will still take up the slack. Plus plenty of buyers from mainland China and Singapore are roaming the land.   Their purchases create jobs for our young kids - including our bumi grads. So jangan kacau daun. 

If the PM messes up in Budget 2014 there will be even more unhappiness in the economy. If people are unhappy, who knows - there may be an 'UMNO Spring'.  I think that is inevitable anyway.  

Dulu I said a lot about Minimum Wages. I am not against Minimum Wages. But our economy is not ready yet. Why? Racial disparity lah. The 'economic output' in our economy is not the same. It differs by race - not by economic or educational status. (This is what many people including the PhDs - are refusing to understand. Mat bila nak mai makan nasi kambing dengan mamu?) 

If you impose Minimum Wages across an economy that has racial, cultural, religious and language based disparities - it will create even more economic disparity. The increasing joblessness among bumis now is just one side effect. I told you so. 

Here is my conclusion : The PMO will not understand any of this. 
read more:http://syedsoutsidethebox.blogspot.com/2013/10/will-budget-2014-topple-najib.html